Hundreds of kilometres beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet lie vast and dynamic subglacial water systems comprised of large lakes, drainage networks and channelised flow paths that fill and drain over a wide range of timescales, from days to decades, and possibly longer.
Despite their surrounding below-freezing conditions, these waters remain in liquid form, due to the immense pressure of the overlying ice, combined with heat from the Earth below and friction generated as the ice flows.
Hidden waters and how behaviours could influence ice flow
In Antarctica alone, just 766 of these subglacial lakes are documented, and only 231 active lakes known. Scientists like Chen Zhao, Senior Research Fellow in Ice Sheet Modelling, together with ice sheet modelling team in University of Tasmania and colleagues from Finland and France have been exploring the hidden water beneath the ice and how their behaviours could influence the ice flow and Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rises.

We simulated subglacial water pressure across Antarctica, revealing vulnerable regions potentially influenced by subglacial water, and mapped both active (blue) and stable (yellow) subglacial lakes and subglacial water channels (black lines). Zhao, C., et al, 2025. Nature Communications.
“Satellite observations show that Antarctica lost about 2,700 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2020, raising global sea levels by over 7mm. Annual ice loss is now more than double the rate of the 1990s,” Zhao explained.
As mass losses from Antarctica and Greenland continue to accelerate, sea levels are expected to rise even faster.
“To understand how quickly and how much Antarctica will contribute to future sea-level rise, my research uses advanced numerical models to simulate how Antarctic ice flows, how it interacts with the subglacial meltwater and ocean, and how these processes control the rate of ice loss.”
A global effort to convert science into future sea-level projections
Converting this science into future sea-level projections is a global effort led through the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). In this project, research teams worldwide run the same climate scenarios across different ice-sheet models to quantify Antarctica’s future contribution to sea-level rise — a collaboration that Zhao’s team is a part of. Results from ISMIP6 feed directly into the IPCC’s global climate assessments, shaping the sea-level rise projections used by governments worldwide.
Hidden hydrology and sea level rise
“As ice slides over the bedrock beneath Antarctica, meltwater trapped at the base of the ice is released and can eventually flow into the ocean. This hidden hydrology — the presence, pressure, movement of water beneath the ice sheet — strongly influences basal sliding and ice-sheet dynamics. If water pressure at the base is high, basal friction drops, and parts of the ice sheet can slide more readily. This makes subglacial water a critical control on ice discharge into the ocean.”
“In the past ISMIP6 and IPCC sea level rise projections, the ice sheet modelling community has largely not considered how evolving subglacial water systems affects basal sliding. The water released from beneath the ice into the ocean can enhance the basal melting beneath floating ice shelves, which in turn weakens the ice and allows even more ice to flow into the ocean.”
“Previous reports have not considered this at all.”
Subglacial waters ‘significant’ in their role in global sea-level rise
Zhao describes Antarctica’s contribution to global sea-level rise as highly uncertain but potentially immense, with subglacial water acting as a previously underappreciated accelerator of ice loss.
“In our recent paper titled “Subglacial water amplifies Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise’, published in Nature, we revealed that incorporating the evolving subglacial water can amplify ice discharge across the Antarctic Ice Sheet by up to threefold above the standard approach without including subglacial water in the model, potentially contributing an additional 2.2 metres to sea-level rise by 2300.”
“If realised, this scale of rise would redraw coastlines worldwide, placing many of today’s major coastal cities and low-lying island nations at severe and potentially irreversible risk — particularly in Australia and the Pacific Islands, where sea level has already been rising faster than the global average.
“We demonstrate that water at the base of ice sheets influences sliding behaviour and that its exclusion from models can underestimate sea-level rise projections and delay the predicted onset of tipping points.”

A chart contrasting the different contributions to sea-level rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet depending on how subglacial water pressure is included. Zhao, C., et al, 2025. Nature Communications.
Behind the modelling
Using state-of-the-art ice sheet modelling, the research explored how different assumptions about water pressure at the ice base affect sea-level rise projections from 2015 to 2300.
“Our results indicate that incorporating subglacial water can amplify ice discharge across the Antarctic Ice Sheet by up to threefold above the standard approach, potentially contributing an additional 2.2 metres to sea-level rise by 2300,” Zhao explains.
Notably, a smoothly decreasing basal drag near the grounding line more than doubles grounding line flux by 2300 relative to scenarios where effective pressure is simplified into a spatially constant coefficient. Basin-specific responses vary significantly, with some scenarios advancing tipping points by up to 40 years. These findings underscore the critical need to integrate evolving subglacial hydrology into ice sheet models.
The study shows that when friction beneath the ice near the coast is allowed to decrease realistically as water pressure builds up, more than twice as much ice can flow into the ocean by 2300 compared with models that assume constant conditions beneath the ice. Different parts of Antarctica respond in very different ways, with some regions reaching dangerous tipping points up to 40 years earlier. The results highlight that future sea-level rise cannot be reliably predicted without accounting for the hidden water systems beneath the ice sheet.


